Sounding like a broken record

Good day…And a Terrific Tom Tuesday to you…Rainy days and Mondays always get me down…with congratulations to Karen Carpenter, that was a good description of yesterday, and hoe it affected my mood….My Cardinals loved ones saw their match canceled due to rain… And I couldn’t go outside! Well, it’s days like this that make sunny days even better! Frank Sinatra greets me this morning with his song, which I danced with my daughter, Dawn, at her wedding reception: The Way You Look Tonight…

Well, the dollar bulls are running wild all over the field and getting whatever they want! The buying of dollars continued yesterday and at least I can see where they got their idea to buy dollars, even if the idea is a bit stretched…. Markets now think that the Fed/Cabal/Cartel will raise rates at the next two FOMC meetings by 50 basis points or -1/2%… This is what market people consider a aggressive approach to fighting inflation. …

Now…. Even if the fed funds rate sits at 2% at the end of May, it will still be well below the rate of inflation… Negative real rates don’t prepare me to put on my dancing shoes… But for the dollar bulls… it’s is apparently…

And speaking of inflation… The White House press secretary made a statement yesterday telling us that the March inflation data is going to be important, then she added that “they would show Putin’s price increases “.

I don’t know why, but that statement got me all pissed off and ready to go to Washington DC and explain the effect of money supply on inflation… But what’s the point… They all deny that inflation is our fault, and they are all as dumb as a box of pebbles!

And Jim Rickards didn’t mind the statement either when he tweeted “Memo to Jen: No one in America believes inflation has anything to do with Putin. It was here before the war, and it will remain after. Stop treating people like they’re stupid. Start treating people with respect and they might actually listen to you. – Jim Rickards on Twitter yesterday…

Gold had an interesting day yesterday…. At the start of trading yesterday gold was up $16 then just after the market opened gold traded up to $19 but the trap door opened and at noon , gold was in the red for the day… But, just like the old saying that it’s hard to hold back a good man… Gold ended the day up $7.40 to close at 1,955 .10$. Silver traded similarly as its morning gain of 34 cents was reduced to a gain of 30 cents and closed at $25.17….

You may recall I said yesterday that early gold and silver gains were ripe for shorting, and it went well, only to see the metals bounce back late in the day… The price of oil continued to fall, as well as that of bonds. prices, as yields continue to rise…

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar kept buying… I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record… But it’s happening and there’s nothing I can do about it…. The BBDXY has gained another 2 index points in the last 24 hours…. Currencies are weakening day by day…

Gold and silver continue to shrug off the rally in the dollar, with gold up $10 and silver down just 10 cents to start today. Bonds continue to sell, and the price of oil wrapped around a tourniquet and stopped the bleeding, overnight, and is trading this morning with a handful of $98….

I want to mention here that we have seen a very strong evolution of the Brazilian real in recent months… Their strong position in commodities has helped, as well as their internal rate of 9.75%… The real has become the favorite currency of the “carry trade*”…longtime readers might recall the “carry trade” phenomenon when Japanese investors sold yen and bought back Australian dollars a few tears ago, now… The 20% internal rate from Russia would appear to be a candidate for the buy side of a carry trade, but…. They are at war…

I was looking at the money concentrated shorts on Saturday and saw in Ed Steer’s Saturday letter that the number of production days that would equal the number of short positions on the books has increased again and is now at 171 days of production needed to fill the amount of solver sold short…

This was followed by a note from the good folks at GATA who had it from money guru, Ted Butler (no relation I know of)…” Money market analyst Ted Butler notes tonight that the concentrated short position in silver futures and derivatives in the United States is much, much larger than the nickel short position that exploded and caused the Metals Exchange’s nickel contract to default from London.

Butler writes that US market regulators should investigate the grotesque short position in silver.

Chuck again, yes the government should investigate… but, they won’t, because? Well IMHO they won’t because they are the architects behind all sorting positions… This has been my position on price manipulation for over a decade now and no one has been able to prove me wrong!

Yesterday in the US Data Cupboard, we saw the government’s inflation forecast for one year ahead, and they were forecasting it to be 6%… Well, we all know the government’s inflation calculator does not calculate inflation in a real environment, so if inflation, according to the government, is still at 6% in a year, it means that we will all suffer a lot from this form of taxation…

In a follow-up to something I wrote last week… thank goodness there was no follow-up discussion regarding the “gaseous stimulus” referred to… Of all the lame, dumb, numb brains, ideas…. it was right up there near the top! But leave it up to our legislators to find ways to spend the money we don’t have!

Well, the stupid CPI mentioned above will be printed this morning for March… The government says the March inflation rate will rise to 8.4%! Later today I will check where the actual inflation rate is…for those of you new to the class…calculates where the actual inflation is without the hedonic adjustments of substitutions and adjustments of weighting that the stupid CPI uses… The government has no intention of showing citizens what real inflation is because they have no intention of being thrown out of office!

To recap… the dollar is still going wild, kicking and taking names later… There’s no stopping this runaway bus right now… There are rumors that the US central bank will raise rates by 50 basis points in April and May… whoopee our negative real rates will be shrunk by 1%!?? Ooohhh I’m all giddy about this… NO! And the stupid IPC will print this morning…

Here is your excerpt: “Fed comments over the past few weeks tell me that our central bankers know they are doing far too little, far too late.”

The monetary policy events of the past few weeks have reminded me of an article I wrote almost 4 years ago to the day, in 2018, titled “The Fed Is Ruthless and By the Time We Realize, it will be too late”.

The purpose of this article was to note that by the time the Fed felt compelled to take decisive action, it would already be too late. I remember that now after watching the Fed squirm for the past few weeks. I feel like my predictions are coming true. If there’s anything clear over the past few weeks, it’s that the FOMC has unanimously decided that decisive action is in order.

Last week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard came out and said it, calling the Fed “behind the curve,” before qualifying his language. He said pricing markets at rates of 3.5% by 2023 was “a little slower” than he had expected, according to CNBC. Bullard also said last week that “inflation is too high” and the Fed needs to act.

“US inflation is exceptionally high, and that doesn’t mean 2.1% or 2.2% or anything like that. This means comparable to what we saw in the era of high inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even if you are very generous to the Fed in interpreting what the inflation rate really is today ‘today…you should raise the policy rate significantly,” Bullard lamented.

But reminding everyone that heavy illusions still exist in the central banking world, Bullard said it would be different this time because the Fed has — wait for it — more credibility.

Chuck again… This article hits the Fed/Cabal/Cartel blow on the head, and although it’s a long article, it’s well worth reading…

Market Price 4/12/2022: US Style: A$0.7436, 0.6838 Kiwi, CA$0.7910, 1.0865 Euro, 1.3016 Sterling, 1.0719 Swiss, European Style: 14.5710 rand, 8.7893 crown, 9.4943 SEK, 347.44 forint, zloty 4.8209, Koruna 22.4956, Rub 83.29, Yen 125.58, Sing 1.3632, HKD 7.8363, China 6.3705, Peso 19.85, BRL 51, BRL 2089 €.68.00, Oil $98.28.10, 2.80%, Silver $25.07, PLATINUM $983.00, Palladium $2,391.00, Copper $4.64 and Gold…1,960.00

That’s all for today… A strange day yesterday… I was in one of my lazy moods… read a bit and then slept all afternoon. I’ve told you this before, but here goes… I believe your body will tell you when it needs to sleep… And if I’ve learned one thing during my journeys with cancer, it’s to listen to your body ! Well, I think I’m going to sell my car and buy a new gas-guzzling one just to annoy the government! HA! Nah… I’ll drive my current car until it dies… But damn it, I miss my Navigator! Jack Johnson takes us to the finish line today with his song: Drink The Water… Hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and remember to be good to yourself.


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